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Office realty leasing rises 30%, on track to beat last year high

Mumbai: Robust demand for office spaces has pushed commercial property leasing in the first three quarters of 2019 by 30% from a year ago, taking it closer to entire 2018’s performance and making sure that this year surpasses the peak touched last year.Driven by tech corporates — accounting for about a third of the leasing activity — office space take-up touched 47 million sq ft in the first nine months against entire 2018’s performance of 48.9 million sq ft, showed data from CBRE South Asia. With this, office leasing activity is now expected to touch its highest level ever, estimated to be over 60 million sq ft in 2019.Leasing activity stood at about 15.4 million sq ft during the quarter ended September, rising by nearly 23% on an annual basis. This was dominated by small- to medium-sized transactions. Small-sized transactions of less than 10,000 sq ft accounted for over 40% of the transaction activity in the quarter.

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“With office leasing scaling a historic high in 2019, we expect further strengthening of occupier sentiment in the medium to long term, backed by corporates looking to expand or consolidate their operations. Favourable government initiatives, transparency in the real estate sector and the right reforms will improve investor sentiment greatly in the coming quarters,” said Anshuman Magazine, CEO, India, South-east Asia, Middle East and Africa, CBRE.Like last year, he expects occupiers would put in greater efforts to incorporate flexibility in their portfolios due to changes in the business environment. Occupiers continued to futureproof their portfolios and hedge against future rental escalations by pre-leasing space across various cities.Bengaluru, followed by Hyderabad, dominated large-sized deal closures, while a few large deals were also reported in the NCR and Pune as well. Large-scale deal closures were mostly dominated by tech firms and flexible space operators. Firms belonging to sectors such as research, consulting & analytics, banking, financial services & insurance (BFSI), and engineering & manufacturing also closed large-sized deals.Tech corporates led the office space take-up, followed by research, consulting & analytics companies (19%) and flexible space operators (15%). The rise in the share of flexible space operators (10% in the second quarter of 2019) was primarily a result of their continued expansion across almost all cities.“The share of the tech sector rose from 31% to 40% annually during 2019 year-to-date, which implies that a rise in technology alternatives, insourcing / job preservation in the US and a global slowdown have not had any specific impact on India’s position as a preferred outsourcing destination for both high-skilled and low-skilled tech services, research and development,” said Ram Chandnani, managing director, advisory & transaction services, India, CBRE South Asia.Supply addition rose by more than 80% in 2019 YTD on an annual basis, with about 43.5 million sq. ft. of development completions reported.Four cities — Hyderabad, Bengaluru, NCR and Mumbai — accounted for almost 80% of this supply addition.Compared to the first three quarters in 2018, the share of SEZs in supply dipped from 40% to 27% during 2019 YTD. Supply addition in the quarter also rose by about 6% on a quarterly basis, touching about 15 million sq. ft. More than 70% of this supply was driven by Hyderabad and NCR, followed by Bengaluru.

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Developers may face liquidity crisis on NBFC woes: Fitch

MUMBAI: Liquidity risk is increasing for Indian-based real-estate developers, as non-bank financial institutions (NBFI; including housing finance companies) are shying away from lending to the sector, said Fitch Ratings.Developers that rely on refinancing from NBFIs, particularly those with weak financial profiles, will be affected the most should conditions persist. The availability of unencumbered assets among large developers may be of limited use, as NBFIs are looking to shed their already-high exposure to the sector, especially to large borrowers.NBFIs have disproportionately increased their share of real-estate sector credit in the previous few years, owing to heightened risk aversion by banks; banks have been cutting exposure due to their own funding challenges that began in late 2018, which have become more acute in the previous few months; domestic bank exposures fell to 2.3% of loans in the financial year ending March 2019 from 2.8% in 2015-16.NBFIs are now also shying away from refinancing maturing debt of even large, proven developers to limit concentration risk to the sector. This is pushing developers towards alternative funding channels, such as private equity. The availability of such funding could be more limited than the value of maturing debt and may only be available to established developers with sufficient unpledged assets. It would also come at a higher cost. We believe banks may still consider exposure to quality real estate, but overall exposure continues to decline.Developers that are focused on high-end projects may face higher risk, as sales of such projects have slowed in the last two years. We believe these developers would be wary of taking sharp price corrections on unsold inventory to boost sales, except in extreme circumstances, as this could diminish the value of unsold inventory and weaken collateral cover for existing lenders.In addition, any boost in sales would be temporary. Meanwhile, developers with substantial exposure to affordable housing may still benefit from marginal access to lenders in light of healthy pre-sales growth, supported by India’s substantial housing deficit and government incentives for buyers via the credit-linked subsidy scheme as well as for developers, including tax deductions and grant of infrastructure status, which entitles companies to some benefits and concessions.The government has announced measures to improve NBFI-sector liquidity, but their efficacy remains to be seen. For example, we believe the government’s July 2019 announcement to provide a first-loss guarantee of 10% on securitised assets issued by NBFIs to banks could ease funding pressure for NBFIs in the short term. However, the provision refers only to financially sound issuers and there is a lack of clarity about the duration of the guarantee and the definition of what comprises a ‘financially sound’ entity. In addition, most of the actions by the authorities to alleviate the liquidity squeeze will benefit the largest and least risky NBFIs and is unlikely to address the pressure on the more property focused players.Defaults by two NBFIs – Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd (IL&FS) in September 2018 and Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd (DHFL) in June 2019 – have contributed to the sector-wide liquidity squeeze, as investors have become more risk averse. Banks’ low appetite for lending to real-estate developers is evidenced by the usually high risk weights attached to such loans. These are due to developers’ typically low credit ratings amid high leverage, making exposure to the sector an inefficient use of banks’ already-limited capital.Substantial bank recapitalisation to increase lending capacity could benefit NBFIs as well as real-estate developers, subject to the banks’ risk appetite. Although a structural improvement in NBFI asset books would take time. Nonetheless, even under better conditions we expect NBFI’s to tighten credit standards, with developers facing funding pressure until there is a broader improvement in their operations, with better end-user demand and pricing support.

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